000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310314 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM GIL CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 115.3W...OR 375 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 31/0300 UTC MOVING W 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. DESPITE BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF ENE SHEAR AND INGESTING THE STABLE AIR MASS TO ITS W...GIL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONSISTENT GLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 27C AND STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION...AND WITH THE FORECAST TRACK EXPECTED TO STRADDLE THIS ISOTHERM IT IS A POSSIBILITY THAT GIL COULD MAINTAIN INTERMITTENT CONVECTION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS EVEN AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW AND 45 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 98.0W...OR 160 NM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 31/0300 UTC MOVING NW 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE DEPRESSION HAS MAINTAINED DEEP BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CIRRUS/CONVECTIVE CANOPY...BUT A 0006 UTC WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS DETAILED A WELL-DEFINED FEATURE...POSSIBLY THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...IN THE SAME VICINITY WHERE A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN AROUND 0000 UTC. ACAPULCO RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ECHOES MOVING DUE W JUST OFFSHORE... WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOT YET IN RADAR RANGE. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO AND PARALLEL THE MEXICAN COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE 4-8" OF RAIN AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15" ESPECIALLY IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 98W-102W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 16N86W 13N103W 10N124W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 84W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 101W-111W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM OFF THE MEXICAN COAST AND IS MOVING NW IN A GENERAL FASHION WHICH SHOULD PARALLEL IT ALONG THE COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4-8" OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15" ARE POSSIBLE ALL ALONG THE COAST OVER THE STATES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS IS QUITE STRONG...OVER 20 KT S OF 10N AND AS HIGH AS 40 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR NEAR 5N. THIS IS COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER EXTREME NE MEXICO WITH BROAD EASTERLY FLOW STRETCHING ACROSS ALL OF MEXICO... CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. FARTHER N...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR MAZATLAN MEXICO WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED SWD ACROSS NW MEXICO. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER MEXICO BETWEEN MEXICO CITY AND PUERTO VALLARTA...AS WELL AS FARTHER N ACROSS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA. W OF 110W... TROPICAL STORM GIL CONTINUES TO MOVE W AWAY FROM CLARION AND SOCORRO ISLANDS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. A LARGE DECK OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS LIES FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 118W-128W AND IS BEING INGESTED INTO THE W SIDE OF GIL. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST W OF NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N118W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 14N140W...PRODUCING NE/E FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ALONG AND N OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 135W BUT RIGHT NOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ IS QUITE ANEMIC W OF ABOUT 121W. $$ BERG