000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302141 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU AUG 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM GIL CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 114.3W...OR ROUGHLY 310 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... AT 30/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GIL HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE OF PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE TO ABOUT 15-20 KT OF ENE SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF GIL ARE JUST ABOVE THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD...ABOUT 27C...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS INGESTING MUCH MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS W. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ITS DEMISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW AND 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. THE DEPRESSION WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 97.3W AT 30/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. T.D. 11-E HAS BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING IN STRUCTURE WITH CONVECTION DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED. HOWEVER...LIKE GIL...THIS SYSTEM IS FEELING SOME EFFECTS FROM THE EXTENSIVE E TO NELY SHEAR WITH VIS IMAGES SHOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TUCKED IN NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SW AND 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 16N86W 13N103W 10N124W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 78W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 101W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE IS A WELL DEFINED HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE...WHICH APPEARS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT TO THE N OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE E TO NELY UPPER FLOW (RESPONSIBLE FOR MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR). THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION IS MOST PROMINENT NEAR THE SPECIAL FEATURES DISCUSSED ABOVE. ANOTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTLINE FROM PANAMA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL S-SW WINDS AND CONVERGENT NELY FLOWS OVER THE LANDMASS. AN AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE W COAST OF MEXICO FROM 21N-24N E OF 108W ENHANCED BY AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THAT REGION. W OF 120W... THE MAJORITY OF THIS REGION LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LOW N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS OVERALL CONFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY STABLE HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY ORGANIZED AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE. ONE SLIGHT PERTURBATION IS A WEAK NWD MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE W BORDER NEAR 23N140W. THIS FEATURE IS PULLING UP A SMALL SWATH OF HIGH MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. MODERATE RIDGING IS THE SFC THEME ACROSS THIS REGION EXTENDING SW FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N146W. THERE IS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 135W/136W FROM 9N-18N. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES EXHIBIT SOME CYCLONIC TURNING LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING PRODUCED. $$ CANGIALOSI