000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301531 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU AUG 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM GIL CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 113.1W...OR ROUGHLY 280 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING W AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MODERATE CONVECTIVE AREA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 113W-116W. GIL IS LIKELY PEAKING OUT IN INTENSITY AS A MINIMAL STORM AS IT IS VERY A SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK...INDICATIVE OF VERY STABLE AIR. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS GIL MOVES DEEPER INTO THIS STABLE AIR AND OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SST'S. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N97W...OR ABOUT 260 NM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING W TO WNW NEAR 10 KT. EARLY MORNING VIS AND SHORTWAVE IR PICTURES SHOW A BROAD BUT WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING. IN ADDITION...A GOOD AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED N OF 12N BETWEEN 95W-100W. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS SYSTEM MAY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 94W/95W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE MAP DUE TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BOTH THE SPECIAL FEATURE SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND AN INVEST AREA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE OVERALL SYSTEMS LOOKS LESS WAVE-LIKE AND MORE AS IF THE CIRCULATIONS HAVE MADE THEIR OWN IDENTITIES. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PACIFIC SYSTEM REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 13N95W 16N104W 11N120W 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 180 MM SW OF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 89W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W-116W AND BETWEEN 120W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE IS A WELL DEFINED HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN ARIZONA. EXTENSIVE E TO NELY UPPER FLOW LIES ABOVE THIS AREA ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION IS MOST PROMINENT NEAR THE SPECIAL FEATURES DISCUSSED ABOVE. ANOTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL S-SW WINDS AND CONVERGENT NELY FLOWS OVER THE LANDMASS. AN AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE W COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SRN BAJA PENINSULA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 106W-110W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THAT REGION. W OF 120W... THE MAJORITY OF THIS REGION LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS OVERALL CONFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY STABLE HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY ORGANIZED AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE. ONE SLIGHT PERTURBATION IS A WEAK NWD MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE W BORDER NEAR 20N140W. THIS FEATURE IS PULLING UP A SMALL SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE ITCZ. MODERATE RIDGING IS THE SFC THEME ACROSS THIS REGION. THERE IS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 135W/136W FROM 9N-16N. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES EXHIBIT SOME CYCLONIC TURNING LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING PRODUCED. $$ CANGIALOSI