000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290339 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED AUG 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1005 MB LOW MOVING WNW 10 KT IS 19N108W. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW UNDER MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS SEEN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL AND CONVECTION DEEPENS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 19N107W 19N110W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 9N85W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 8N TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA REACHING NORTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE WAVE AXIS JUST W OF THE NORTHER COAST OF COSTA RICA. THE MAIN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PORTION APPROACHING HONDURAS. THE CONVECTION S OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONG FETCH OF MODERATE ONSHORE SW FLOW IN THE EPAC. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 94W IS NOW DEPICTED AS A LOW NEAR 12N93W 1008 MB MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM JUST A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW CLOUD FIELD FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 91W-100W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 96W-100W. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 13N95W 18N106W 11N120W 12N130W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-107W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... THE SFC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGHING WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON-LIKE SW FLOW S OF THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 13N. LOCAL WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL MIX WITH A COUPLE PULSES OF MODERATE LONGER PERIOD S/SW SWELL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WHICH WILL MAINLY BE AN IMPACT NEAR SHORE UPON SHOALING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NE GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH ANOTHER UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 29N110W. STRONG E TO NE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SHEARING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ TO THE SW. UPPER FLOW BENDS MORE SE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA...WHICH IS PROMOTING UPPER DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE ACAPULCO THROUGH MANZANILLO. W OF 120W... FAIRLY WEAK SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 18N...ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 37N138W. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE VICINITY AND IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY SMALL AND WEAK 1011 MB SFC LOW CONTINUES NEAR 16N131W...BUT HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING NNW 15-20 KT IS CENTERED NEAR 26N123W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 17N128W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING W 10-15 KT IS NEAR 18N140W. VERY DRY/STABLE AIR UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS ROTATING AROUND THESE FEATURES AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. $$ AGUIRRE