000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE AUG 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 7N TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA REACHING NORTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N85W. HOWEVER... THE MAIN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PORTION APPROACHING HONDURAS. THE CONVECTION S OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONG FETCH OF MODERATE ONSHORE SW FLOW IN THE EPAC. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 7N IS MOVING W ABOUT 8 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EXHIBITING CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW CLOUD FIELD FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 91W-98W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-13N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 106W WAS DROPPED AS THE AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...A 1007 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF 7N106W. THIS...IN ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 103W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N105W 12N112W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 15N100W 16N108W 11N121W 13N130W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 11.5N-13N BETWEEN 105W-112W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-126W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... THE SFC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGHING WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON-LIKE SW FLOW S OF THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 13N. LOCAL WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL MIX WITH A COUPLE PULSES OF MODERATE LONGER PERIOD S/SW SWELL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WHICH WILL MAINLY BE AN IMPACT NEAR SHORE UPON SHOALING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NE GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH ANOTHER UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 29N110W. STRONG E TO NE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SHEARING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ TO THE SW. UPPER FLOW BENDS MORE SE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA...WHICH IS PROMOTING UPPER DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE ACAPULCO THROUGH MANZANILLO. W OF 120W... FAIRLY WEAK SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 18N...ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 37N138W. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE VICINITY AND IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY SMALL AND WEAK 1013 MB SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 17N131W...BUT HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. AN UPPER LOW MOVING NNW 15-20 KT IS CENTERED NEAR 25N123W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 15N128W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING W 10-15 KT IS NEAR 18N139W. VERY DRY/STABLE AIR UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS ROTATING AROUND THESE FEATURES AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. $$ AGUIRRE