000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE AUG 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 7N THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE OFF THE COSTA RICAN AND PANAMANIAN COASTS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N TO THE MEXICAN COAST...ROUGHLY WHERE THE WAVE INTERSECTS THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106N N OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT. LOW PRES 1007 MB ALONG WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS FROM 17N TO 21N. THIS IS ON THE S END OF AN UPPER TROUGH...SE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS IS ENHANCING THE NOCTURNAL COASTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 14N96W 12N115W 10N125W 12N137W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG WAVE AXIS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS N-S ROUGHLY ALONG 85W FROM GUATEMALA TO COSTA RICA. FURTHER TO THE NW...UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS RESULTING IN NELY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SW OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND SRN MEXICAN COASTLINES. FLOW ALOFT IS MORE ELY OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO...S OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WHILE THE NELY FLOW IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE GROWTH...PERSISTENT FRESH LOW LEVEL S TO SW FLOW IS CONVERGING OFF THE COAST WITH ELY FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF OFFSHORE CONVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE 1008 MB LOW PRES OFF MANZANILLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE ELY SHEAR. HOWEVER THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS IS SHOWING WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING OFF THE EL SALVADOR COAST ALONG THE ITCZ. WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE MODERATE ELY SHEAR. FRESH TO STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST S OF THESE LOW PRES AREAS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE BUILDING WIND WAVES WILL JOIN MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL IN THE AREA FROM THE S. W OF 120W... UPPER LOW IS CENTERED 19N124W WITH UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO THE W NEAR 23N132W. NLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEM IS KEEP MID AND UPPER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVEN ALONG THE ITCZ. QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE NW...SPILLING JUST S OF 30N. ONLY CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SW...S OF 25N AND W OF 130W. $$ CHRISTENSEN