000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280332 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE AUG 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC ALONG 82W N OF 5N TO ACROSS PANAMA. SLIGHT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING THAT WAS EARLIER NOTED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME LESS NOTICEABLE DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N84W. SW WINDS WIDELY PREVALENT ACROSS THE E PACIFIC INCREASE TO THE W OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 9N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 14.5N95W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS ARE SHEARING OUT THE COLD TOP CONVECTION TO THE SW AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE WINDS ARE PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. TROPICAL ALONG 106W N OF 7N IS MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING FROM ABOUT 12.5N-17N BETWEEN 103W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 103W-105W. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 11.5N95W 16N105W 12N118W 17N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-107W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 125W... SFC RIDGING IS KEEPING TAB OF THE AREA N OF 20N...ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N142W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N142W WITH AMPLE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR EVIDENT N OF 13N. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING W 10 KT IS NEAR 19N136W. A WEAK SURFACE 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 17N136W...BUT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED MAINLY N OF 17N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY S OF 10N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NW PORTION IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 26N138W SURROUNDED BY DRY/STABLE AIR. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 28N127W TO NE OF THE AREA NEAR 30N125W. E OF 125W... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 23N105W WITH A RIDGE WNW TO SRN BAJA IS PLAYING A MAJOR ROLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND REGIME OVER MUCH OF THIS PART OF THE REGION AS SATELLITE- DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS PLOTTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SPEEDS IN THE MODERATE RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 99W-112W...AND TO THE W OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHEAR THE TOPS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO THE S AND SW OF MEXICO INCLUDING THAT RELATED TO THE WAVES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NW 10-15 KT IS NEAR 23N121W. AT THE SURFACE...MONSOON TYPE SW FLOW PREVAILS PRIMARILY S OF ABOUT 14N. EXTENSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH AND NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE AS THE AREA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER BROAD LOW PRES. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE