000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC ALONG 81W N OF 4N TO ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA. SLIGHT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER AND ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA EXTENDING S INTO THE PACIFIC FOR 120 NM. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTION INTO THIS CONVECTION SUGGESTS A MODERATE SW FLOW TO THE W OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 7N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-13N. SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC IS ALSO NOTED WITH THIS WAVE NEAR 11N95W AS MODERATE SW LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE S OF VERSUS LIGHTER SW-W WINDS N OF 10N W OF THE WAVE AND LIGHT ELY WINDS N OF 10N E OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE OF THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. TROPICAL ALONG 106W N OF 6N IS GENERALLY MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING FROM ABOUT 12.5N-17N BETWEEN 103W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM TO ITS E FROM 13N-18N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS TO ITS NW WITHIN 60 NM OF 17N107W. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 11.5N94W 15N101W 13N110W 12.5N120W 17N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-97W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-106W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BETWEEN 87W-91W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 125W... SFC RIDGING CONTROLS THE AREA N OF 20N...ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N145W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N146W WITH AMPLE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR EVIDENT N OF 13N. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING W 10 KT IS NEAR 19N136W. A WEAK SURFACE 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 18N136W...BUT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HRS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED MAINLY N OF 17N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY S OF 10N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NW PORTION IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 26N138W SURROUNDED BY DRY/STABLE AIR. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA...GENERALLY ALONG 118W. E OF 125W... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 23N105W WITH A RIDGE WNW TO SRN BAJA IS PLAYING A MAJOR ROLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND REGIME OVER MUCH OF THIS PART OF THE REGION AS SATELLITE-DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS PLOTTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SPEEDS IN THE MODERATE RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 99W-112W...AND TO THE W OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHEAR THE TOPS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO THE S AND SW OF MEXICO INCLUDING THAT RELATED TO THE WAVES. AT THE SURFACE...MONSOON TYPE SW FLOW PREVAILS PRIMARILY S OF ABOUT 14N. EXTENSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH AND NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE