000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC 
ALONG 78W S OF PANAMA TO 3N. THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA N OF 6N BETWEEN 79W-83W...BUT 
THIS SEEMS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE/MOIST 
ONSHORE SW FLOW. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W N OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN 250 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-13N...MAINLY NEAR THE 
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE ITSELF AND THE ITCZ. THERE APPEARS TO 
BE SOME BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING JUST S OF 
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...BUT THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W N OF 6N GENERALLY MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
A BROAD 1006 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N...THOUGH THE 
FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THIS 
CIRCULATION MAY BE MORE AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH PERHAPS JUST AN 
ELONGATED TROUGH AT THE SFC. WILL REEVALUATE THIS FOR THE 15 AND 
1800 UTC MAPS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 100W-108W. 

...ITCZ...

AXIS CENTERED ALONG 10N84W 10N89W 16N103W 11N125W 12N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N81W AND 
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 8N87W 11N98W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 
10N119W 12N128W AND WITHIN 120 NM 10N139W...AND FROM 8N TO 24N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 115W...
SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO RETAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA N OF 
20N...ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 37N145W. THE BROAD 
LOW/TROUGH THAT WAS DISRUPTING THE TRADE FLOW OVER THE AREA LAST 
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND HAS MOVED SOUTH TO 18N135W...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES 
EXPECTED MAINLY N OF 17N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY S OF 10N. THE 
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NW PORTION IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER HIGH 
NEAR 26N138W SURROUNDED BY DRY/STABLE AIR. AN INVERTED UPPER 
TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA...GENERALLY ALONG 118W. 

E OF 115W...
BROAD SFC TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MODERATE 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW FLOW AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 13N. IN 
ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL WAVES NOTED ABOVE...SPEED CONVERGENCE 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE WINDS IS SUPPORTING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION 
OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE 
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N105W...WHILE UPPER TROUGHING IS OVER THE 
WRN CARIBBEAN. STRONG E TO NE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES 
IS SHEARING UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE CONVECTION TO THE SW. 

$$
WILLIS