000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270845
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER GUATEMALA ALONG 91W/92W N OF 6N MOVING W 
ABOUT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
PERSISTS WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AND
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE ITSELF AND THE ITCZ. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
WAVE OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1006 
MB LOW NEAR 16N103W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW IS BROAD AND 
RATHER ILL DEFINED...HOWEVER SURFACE PRESSURES AND WIND 
OBSERVATIONS FROM MANZANILLO TO ACAPULCO SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE 
OF A LOW OFFSHORE...ALBEIT A BROAD LOW. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 17N 
TO THE COAST BETWEEN 99W-108W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 10N88W 16N100W 13N110W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 8N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFF THE MEXICAN COAST...
MODERATE TO STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO 
FEED NWD TOWARDS THE ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRES JUST OFF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED 
CONVERGENCE IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROUGH...SO SOME OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED 
ABOUT S OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. FURTHER W...TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH HAD FORMED OVER 
LAND ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS DRIFTED SWD IN SOME 
CASES AND NOW SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES 
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND MANZANILLO AND IS 
WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE BROAD 1006 MB AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED 
ABOUT 165 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE 
REGION IS BEING VENTILATED BY STRONG NE/E UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH 
IS ADVECTING THE CIRRUS TOWARDS THE EQUATOR.

REMAINDER OF AREA...
THE WRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS LESS ACTIVE THAN AREAS TO 
THE E WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DUE TO A LARGE AREA 
OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LOW 
NEAR 23N116W OR ABOUT 325 NM W OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
IS HELPING TO DRAW MOISTURE NWD ACROSS MEXICO. ANOMALOUSLY WEAK 
TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WITH LOW-LEVEL 
WESTERLY FLOW SPANNING BETWEEN THE LOW/WAVE NEAR 100W AND 135W. 
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 18N135W AND IS MOVING WSW 
5-10 KT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE N. THE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 
HRS.

$$
COBB