000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262120 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN AUG 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS ALONG 86W N OF 6N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS LOCATED WELL TO THE N ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THERE IS AN INDICATION OF A CIRCULATION NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO W OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 85W-92W...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W EXTENDING S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO WITH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N100W. THE LOW HAS FORMED DUE TO STRONG SW/W WINDS FEEDING INTO THE ITCZ WHICH ARE PRODUCING A LOCAL AREA OF VORTICITY OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED WHERE THE S/SW FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH THE MUCH LIGHTER FLOW ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 97W-107W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 10N87W 15N100W 12N110W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 80W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 97W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W-128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFF THE MEXICAN COAST... STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED NWD TOWARDS THE ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRES JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SO SOME OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED ABOUT 350 NM S OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER...THE CONFLUENT AXIS DOES LIE OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THOSE COUNTRIES AND S OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. FARTHER W...THE SPEED CONFLUENCE AND WIND SHIFT ARE MORE ALIGNED BETWEEN 95W-105W...AND THUS DEEP CONVECTION IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE 1008 MB AREA OF LOW PRES WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 85 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE REGION IS BEING VENTILATED BY STRONG NE/E UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS ADVECTING THE CIRRUS TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. REMAINDER OF AREA... THE WRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS MUCH QUIETER THAN AREAS TO THE E. THERE IS MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COURTESY OF A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED ABOUT 190 NM SW OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO DRAW MOISTURE NWD ACROSS MEXICO. THE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SPANNING BETWEEN THE LOW/WAVE NEAR 100W AND 135W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 19N134W AND IS MOVING W 5-10 KT JUST BARELY ON THE S SIDE OF WHERE THE EASTERLIES BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED. $$ BERG