000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8OW/81W N OF 4 MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE 
WAVE COUPLED WITH THE EPAC ITCZ IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL AS OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA RELATED TO THE WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE EPAC. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N79...INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...15N95W 
11N110W 10N125W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA AND WITHIN 80 TO 100 NM OF THE PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA COASTLINES. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 96W AND 112W...AND WITHIN 50 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 
123W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
TWO ANTICYCLONES DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH THE FIRST 
ONE CENTERED NEAR 28N128W AND THE SECOND ONE CENTERED NEAR 
28N110W/NW MEXICO. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED 
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES NEAR 26N120W. MODERATE MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL ELY FLOW PREVAILED S OF THE ANTICYCLONES AND WAS ADVECTING 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WWD FROM THE ITCZ. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
IS SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION OVER THE STATE OF SONORA IN MEXICO WHERE THERE IS A 
1002 MB SFC LOW. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR PREVAILS OVER THE W PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 125W...LIMITING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT OVER 
THE TROPICS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 120W. AT 
THE SURFACE...A BROAD WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESS AREA IS NEAR 
17N132W AND IS MARKED BY SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. ANOTHER WEAK 
AREA OF LOW PRESS IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N125W. HIGH 
PRES DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. NE 
WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA DURING 
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

E OF 110W...
MODERATE MID TO UPPER NE FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 
110W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WWD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW 
IS ALSO DIFFLUENT IN NATURE AND IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N104W...MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SLY WINDS OF  
20 KT AND LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH ARE AFFECTING THE REGION S 
OF 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. 

$$
GR