000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W N OF 4N THROUGH WRN PANAMA MOVING W 
10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
WAVE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN PANAMA. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 120 N OF 4N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. TO 16N 
MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 6N92W 12N119W 8N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 120W...A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING OFF THE 
MEXICAN COAST NEAR MAZATLAN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
HURRICANE DEAN. LOW PRES 1005 MB IS ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST S 
OF PUERTO VALLARTA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK 
AS IT MOVES NNW INTO THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA E OF LOS CABOS. 
SHIP REPORTS TO THE SW OF THE LOW INDICATE WINDS ARE UP TO 20 
KT. THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS IN THE VICINITY...BEFORE 
WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES FURTHER N. ELSEWHERE...ONLY 
MODEST CONVECTION IS EVIDENT. NELY FLOW ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF 
AN UPPER LOW E OF THE YUCATAN IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ITCZ OFF THE SRN MEXICAN AND GUATEMALAN 
COASTS. CONVECTION MAY FLARE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
HOWEVER AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 89W MIGRATES INTO THE 
AREA...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN SHIFTS W TO 95W 
THROUGH FRI. FURTHER S...A SURGE OF SLY FLOW S OF THE EQUATOR 
WILL DELIVER MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL INTO THE AREA S OF 10N OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

W OF 120W...DRY SUBSIDENT AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA LIMITING 
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...EVEN ALONG THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE 
NEAR 120W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FRESH NLY FLOW IN THE 
AREA N OF 28N...ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRES 1032 MB 
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FIELD OF 
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THIS AREA AS WELL.

$$
CHRISTENSEN