000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W FROM 3N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM  OF AXIS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 13N94W 11N110W 9N120W 
12N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 87W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS 
JUST OFF THE THE NRN BAJA COAST NEAR 31N117W WITH RIDGE 
CONTROLLING THE UPPER PATTERN N OF 22N. THERE ARE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER WRN MEXICO MOVING SW AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TOWARD 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT 
TRACKS TOWARDS THE STABLE OPEN WATERS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW 
JUST W OF THE AREA IS NEAR 20N142W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR IS S OF 24N W OF 120W. MOISTURE 
IS MUCH MORE ABUNDANT IN THE TROPICS E OF 105W TO COLOMBIA 
MOSTLY DUE TO HURRICANE DEAN AND A MOIST PORTION OF THE ITCZ. 

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 24N128W TO  
22N120W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A RIDGE THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
115W.

$$
FORMOSA