000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220313
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 3N TO 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 
KT. EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL 
TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SHOWER 
ACTIVITY IS BARELY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS 
FROM 7N-11N. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N76W 13N94W 9N108W 12N130W 12140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 
90W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 97W 
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ABOVE THE NRN 
BAJA CONTROLLING THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL BELT 
THROUGH 140W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS LOCKED IN THE RIDGE 
...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE OVER THE EPAC WATERS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS 
TSTMS OVER WRN MEXICO MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE STABLE OPEN 
WATERS...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY NEAR THE BAJA 
PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER S...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW 
NEAR 17N141W IS PRODUCING A CONFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DRYING OUT 
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS S OF 21N W OF 125W. MOISTURE IS MUCH 
MORE ABUNDANT IN THE TROPICAL E PORTION TO THE S OF HURRICANE 
DEAN. DEAN HAS CAUSED QUITE A PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ HELPING 
TO SPREAD OUT THE CONVECTION...DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND FOR 
DAYS AS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AS INDICATED BY ASCAT DATA. WINDS 
WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 KT SHORTLY...IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY.
TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDS IN THE SUBTROPICS FAIRLY 
LIGHT...DUE TO THE WEAK PRES PATTERN. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS 
ARE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT S OF 9N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W...INFLUENCED 
SOME BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W/111W. 

$$
CANGIALOSI