000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W/110W FROM 3N TO 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 
KT. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL TURNING ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS 
BARELY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 7N- 
12N. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N90W 8N106W 10N117W 12N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 5N E OF 
88W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 
100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ABOVE THE NRN 
BAJA CONTROLLING THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL BELT 
THROUGH 140W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS LOCKED IN THE RIDGE 
SPREADING W...BUT NOT MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER. FURTHER S...A SLOW 
MOVING UPPER LOW NEAR 16N140W IS PRODUCING A CONFLUENT PATTERN 
ALOFT DRYING OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS S OF 21N W OF 125W. 
MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE ABUNDANCE ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PORTION TO 
THE S OF HURRICANE DEAN. DEAN HAS CAUSED QUITE A PERTURBATION IN 
THE ITCZ HELPING TO SPREAD OUT THE CONVECTION...DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL SWIRL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
LOSE IT'S IDENTITY CENTERED NEAR 24N122W...ANALYZED 1012 MB. AN 
EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT WINDS ARE MOSTLY BELOW 20 KT 
EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE SMALL AREA IN THE NW QUADRANT...BUT EVEN 
THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE SHORTLY. TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 
KT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WINDS IN THE SUBTROPICS FAIRLY LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS 
ARE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT S OF 9N E BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. 

$$
CANGIALOSI