000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 102W IS ADJUSTED 
AHEAD ALONG 108W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE HOVMOLLER 
DIAGRAM. SOME ROTATION TO MID CLOUDS MAY INDICATE A WEAK LOW ON 
THE ITCZ. STRONG ELY WINDS ALOFT PROBABLY TOO MUCH FOR ANY 
DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 108 AND 112W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N90W 9N100W 12N120W 13N130W 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER 
THE GULF OF PANAMA AND NEAR 7N82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN 
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W-100W AND NEAR 14N95W. 

ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST AT 23N108W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N112W THIS 
MORNING AND IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG ELY FLOW S OF 25N. AN 
UPPER LOW IS OVER NE MEXICO AND WILL BE MOVING WWD ACROSS MEXICO 
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT ARE BETWEEN THE LOW 
AND THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A CUTOFF LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 
19N138W DRIFTING SLOWLY WWD. 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 24N122W WITH 
NO CONVECTION. ONLY LOW CLOUDS SHOW THE CIRCULATION IN SATELLITE 
PICTURES. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS WEAK AND NE TRADES ARE 10 TO 15 
KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST ARE ALSO LIGHT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL. GAP WINDS ARE ALSO LIGHT. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT S OF 8N E OF 110W AND S 
OF 7N W OF 125W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. 

$$
GR