000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202129 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 20 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. LITTLE SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE AXIS...BUT THERE IS AN WEAK CURVED BAND FEATURE SEEN FURTHER TO THE W NEAR 105W. WILL REVIEW SOME HISTORY OF THIS FEATURE TO SEE IF THE WAVE AXIS IS INDEED ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 7N102W 11N112W 14N121W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 86W AND BETWEEN 91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 106W-108W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER NEAR 32N112W...CONTROLS THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS OUT TO 135W. INVERTED TROUGHING LIES W OF THERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N137W. A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LOCKED IN THE RIDGE...BUT IR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH PRECIP. CONFLUENCE ALOFT IS STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE TROPICAL E PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE MAIN FEATURE IS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N120W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOW MOVED OVER COOL WATERS AND CONSISTS OF ONLY LOW CLOUDS SWIRLING ABOUT IT'S CENTER. QSCAT AND ASCAT MISSED THE CIRCULATION...BUT BASED ON PREVIOUS DATA SOME 20 KT WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN SOURCE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL BELT INDICATING THE STABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERALL WEAK PRES PATTERN IN PLACE IS KEEPING TRADE WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. $$ CANGIALOSI