000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W N OF 6N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH 1007 
MB LOW NEAR 16N107W. BROAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NOTED. SCATTERED 
CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT 
OVER LOW PRES AREA HAMPERING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 6N TO 16N MOVING W AT 10 KT LACKS
DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N80W 14N95W 15N106W 11N128W 11N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN N OF 5N E OF 81W AND WITHIN 120 
NM OF AXIS BEWTEEN 97W AND 113W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
NEAR 16N107W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 17/0115Z QUIKSCAT SHOW A LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH DIVERGENT UPPER 
LEVEL WIND FLOW ALOFT EXISTS OVER THE AREA UNIDIRECTIONAL E-NE SHEAR 
IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE 
THE QUIKSCAT SHOWS A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE E 
OF 95W...BUT NO ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT IN THE 
TROUGH BASED ON ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS 
OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST ARE BRINGING NW SWELLS TO 8-9 FT INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA N OF 24N E OF 125W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE 
IS KEEPING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 118W LIMITED IN ITS POLEWARD EXTENT 
TO GENERALLY S OF 14N.

$$
MUNDELL