000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS APPEARS TO 
BE THE WAVE THAT HELPED SPAWN T.S. ERIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
CURRENTLY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS ANALYZED 1009 MB ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THE LOW IS NOT WELL DEFINED AT THE 
MOMENT BUT IS LIKELY ASSISTING IN TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 96W-103W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W/119W FROM 5N-16N MOVING W 10 KT. THE 
ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW REMAINS DETACHED TO THE E OF THE WAVE 
NEAR 16N108W AS IT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST DAY 
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH MINIMAL SHOWER 
ACTIVITY NEAR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL. ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SFC MAP AS 
ALL OF THE CYCLONIC TURNING OBSERVED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE 
PAST FEW DAYS HAS MORPHED WITHIN THE ITCZ. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N79W 10N87W 13N95W 13N110W 13N130W 11N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 
10N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 107W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION IS 
INDUCING SLIGHT TROUGHING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. A 
MUCH SMALLER UPPER LOW HAS CUT OFF AND IS DRIFTING SWD NEAR THE 
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING A BROKEN LAYER OF 
CIRRUS IN IT'S VICINITY OVER THE EPAC WATERS AND TRIGGERING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER N MEXICO AND S ARIZONA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 
110W ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N135W. THIS 
OVERALL STABLE AND SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT PATTERN IS SUSTAINING 
WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 110W. 
ELSEWHERE...THE TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST 
WITH DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG NELY UPPER FLOW ADVECTING A 
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE REGION. CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 110W.   
ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE AREAS OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE 
RELATED/CONTRIBUTED BY THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...DISCUSSED ABOVE.

THE SFC PRES PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO 
THE PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSES OUR NW BORDER. AN 
EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF 
THE AREA...EXCEPT SOME 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE W/SW PORTION AND 
MARGINAL WINDS NEAR THE BAJA COAST WHERE THE GRADIENT IS 
TIGHTENED DUE TO INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S. THIS MODEST 
PRES PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI