000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 7N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS APPEARS TO 
BE THE WAVE THAT HELPED SPAWN THE AREA OF T.D. FIVE IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW PRES...1007 MB ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS NEAR 13N.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
13N-16N BETWEEN 93W-95W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W/115W FROM 6N-18N MOVING W 10 KT. THE 
ASSOCIATED 1007 MB LOW IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE WAVE AS IT 
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY AT 15N110W. AN AREA OF STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 6N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N85W 10N108W 11N130W 9N140W. BESIDES THE 
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 85W-90W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 125W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW 
CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION...HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE 
YESTERDAY BUT STILL COVERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N127W. THIS OVERALL STABLE AND 
SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT PATTERN IS SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD DRY AIR 
ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N114W. HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION ACROSS 
NORTHERN BAJA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...THE 
TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST WITH CLUSTERS OF 
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 115W.  ONE OF THE MORE 
ACTIVE AREAS OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE RELATED/CONTRIBUTED BY THE 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES...DISCUSSED 
ABOVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF 
THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME.

SFC HIGH PRES...1017 MB...IS CENTERED NEAR 29N131W WITH RIDGE 
FROM THE HIGH TO 21N116W.  A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
PRODUCING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PRES PATTERN 
MAY EVEN WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THUS WEAKEN 
THE TRADEWINDS.  

$$
DGS