000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS APPEARS 
TO BE THE WAVE THAT HELPED SPAWN THE AREA OF T.D. FIVE IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LEFTOVER WAVE IS LOWER AMPLITUDE WITH AN 
AREA OF LOW PRES...1007 MB ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 
13N.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 95W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO FROM 15N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 97W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W FROM 8N TO 18N MOVING W 10 KT. THE 
ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE WAVE AS IT 
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY AT 15N109W.  THE LOW LEVEL 
CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CONVECTIVE AREA. 
BASED ON THIS POORLY DEFINED STRUCTURE...IT IS OBVIOUS 
THAT STRONG NELY UPPER WINDS ARE AFFECTING THIS WAVE/LOW AND 
BASED ON THIS POOR UPPER ENVIRONMENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT 
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W 
AND 117W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 136W FROM 6N TO 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS STILL EVIDENT ALONG THIS WAVE 
AXIS...ALTHOUGH LESS DISTINCT THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.  SHOWER 
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY ITS SURROUNDING 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF 
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND 132W.   

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N77W 10N84W 13N90W 13N100W 15N110W 12N120W 
11N130W 9N140W.  BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE 
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 107W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 
11N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.  

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW 
CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION...HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE 
YESTERDAY BUT STILL COVERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA.  TWO SMALL CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
25N109W AND 30N115W.  A WEAK NARROW SHORTWAVE LIES ABOVE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WHICH IS INDUCING SOME TROUGHING OVER WRN MEXICO. 
ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 21N122W.  THIS OVERALL STABLE AND SOMEWHAT 
CONFLUENT PATTERN IS SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS 
THE SUBTROPICAL BELT. THE TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC IS CONSIDERABLY 
MORE MOIST WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E 
OF 115W.  ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE AREAS OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE 
RELATED/CONTRIBUTED BY THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG THE 
TROPICAL WAVES...DISCUSSED ABOVE.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS 
ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME.

SFC RIDGING IS INTERRUPTED BY A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST  BEYOND 
OUR NW BORDER ALONG 32N135W TO BEYOND 31N140W.  A WEAKENED 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION 
AS DEPICTED BY A QSCAT PASS.  THIS PRESSURE PATTERN MAY EVEN 
WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THUS WEAKEN THE 
TRADEWINDS.  

$$
FORMOSA