000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS 
APPEARS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HELPED SPAWN THE AREA OF LOW 
PRES...INVEST AREA...IN THE S CENTRAL GULF. THE LEFTOVER WAVE IS 
LOWER AMPLITUDE WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES...1009 MB ANALYZED 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE 
W OF THE LOW...STRONGLY SHEARED...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112W FROM 8N-18N MOVING W 10 KT. THE 
ASSOCIATED 1010 MB LOW IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE WAVE AS IT 
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CONVECTIVE AREA WITHIN 120 NM TO 
ITS W. BASED ON THIS POORLY DEFINED STRUCTURE...IT IS OBVIOUS 
THAT STRONG NELY UPPER WINDS ARE AFFECTING THIS WAVE/LOW AND 
BASED ON THIS POOR UPPER ENVIRONMENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT 
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 134W FROM 6N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS STILL EVIDENT ALONG THIS WAVE 
AXIS...ALTHOUGH LESS DISTINCT THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. SHOWER 
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY ITS SURROUNDING 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N77W 11N85W 13N90W 13N100W 15N110W 13N120W 
12N134W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N 
BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 106W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 109W AND 114W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W..

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW 
CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION...HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE 
YESTERDAY BUT STILL COVERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. A WEAK NARROW SHORTWAVE LIES ABOVE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH 
IS INDUCING SOME TROUGHING OVER WRN MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N122W. 
THIS OVERALL STABLE AND SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT PATTERN IS SUSTAINING 
WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL BELT. THE 
TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST WITH CLUSTERS OF 
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 115W. ONE OF THE MORE 
ACTIVE AREAS OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE RELATED/CONTRIBUTED BY THE 
WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES...DISCUSSED 
ABOVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF 
THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME.

SFC RIDGING IS INTERRUPTED BY A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST  
BEYOND OUR NW BORDER. THIS WEAKENED PRES GRADIENT IS ONLY 
PRODUCING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AS DEPICTED BY A 15Z 
QSCAT PASS. THIS PRES PATTERN MAY EVEN WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXTENSIVE AREAS OF STRONG WINDS (TRADES) 
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT.

$$
CANGIALOSI