000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W N OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS 
APPEARS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HELPED SPAWN THE AREA OF LOW 
PRES...INVEST AREA...IN THE S CENTRAL GULF. THE LEFTOVER WAVE IS 
NOW WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 8N-18N MOVING W 10 KT.  A 
1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N.  THE LOW 
LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CONVECTIVE 
AREA WITHIN 120 NM TO ITS W. BASED ON THIS POORLY DEFINED 
STRUCTURE...IT IS OBVIOUS THAT STRONG NELY UPPER WINDS ARE 
AFFECTING THIS WAVE/LOW AND BASED ON THIS POOR UPPER ENVIRONMENT 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 134W FROM 6N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS STILL EVIDENT ALONG THIS WAVE 
AXIS...ALTHOUGH LESS DISTINCT THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.  SHOWER 
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY ITS SURROUNDING 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 12N105W 13N115W 11N130W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 5.1N82.7W...WITHIN 
120 NM OF 11.5N97.3W...WITHIN 100 NM OF 14.8N102.9W AND WITHIN 
90 NM OF 15.4N111.8W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW 
CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION...HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE 
YESTERDAY BUT STILL COVERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. A WEAK NARROW SHORTWAVE LIES ABOVE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH 
IS INDUCED SOME TROUGHING OVER WRN MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N115W. 
THIS OVERALL STABLE AND SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT PATTERN IS SUSTAINING 
WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL BELT. THE 
TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST WITH CLUSTERS OF 
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 115W. ONE OF THE MORE 
ACTIVE AREAS OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE RELATED/CONTRIBUTED BY A 
1008 MB LOW CENTERED SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING W TO WNW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SE
FROM THE HIGH TO 22N115W. THIS MODEST PRES GRADIENT IS ONLY 
PRODUCING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PRES PATTERN 
MAY EVEN WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO 
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF STRONG WINDS (TRADES) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT 
THE MOMENT.

$$
CANGIALOSI