000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140901
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W/111W FROM 8N-18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  A 
1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N110W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-17N 
BETWEEN 110W-112W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W FROM 6N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W 16N105W 12N120W 13N130W 8N140W.  
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 94W-99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
112W-114W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 120W-124W.
-
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS SE OF THE TROUGH WITH 
AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N114W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 
32N121W. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE COAST 
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N108W. THIS OVERALL CONFLUENT PATTERN 
IS SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT W OF 115W. THE TROPICAL 
ERN PACIFIC IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST WITH SOME CLUSTERS OF 
STRONG CONVERSION ALONG THE ITCZ.

A 1021 MB RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N129W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM THE HIGH TO 22N113W. WEAK RIDGING IS PRODUCING MODERATE 
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PRES PATTERN MAY EVEN WEAKEN 
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXTENSIVE AREAS OF 
STRONG WINDS (TRADES) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT.

$$
DGS