000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W N OF 5N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. MOST OF 
THIS WAVE IS IN THE W CARIB SEA...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF ITCZ 
RELATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES E OF THE AXIS TO THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 4N-8N POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS 
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE MID-GULF HELPING TO 
PRODUCE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW CARIB SEA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION...PUSHING SW BY STRONG NELY UPPER FLOW...ARE ALSO 
OVER THE EPAC WATERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 91W-99W.   

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W FROM 6N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SHORTWAVE IR AND THE FIRST COUPLE VIS IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING IN IT'S CLOUD FIELD. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SW EXTENT OF 
THE BROAD TURNING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-13N 
BETWEEN 114W-118W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 131W FROM 7N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. A LOW WAS NOT ANALYZED BECAUSE SURROUNDING 
SHIP DATA DOES NOT FIT THE FLOW SEEN ON SATELLITE...POSSIBLY 
SUGGESTING THAT THE CIRCULATION IS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THIS WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPRESSING 
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 12N105W 12N115W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 5N79W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 75 NM OF 13N97.6W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
11.8N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS SE OF THERE WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N115W AND NEAR 18N140W. A WEAK 
INVERTED TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE ANTICYCLONES. THIS OVERALL 
CONFLUENT PATTERN IS SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT W OF 
125W. THE TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST 
CONTRIBUTED TO A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES AND STRONG NELY UPPER 
FLOW...BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER 
MEXICO. THE STRONGEST CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NEAR THE 
ANALYZED TROPICAL WAVES...DISCUSSED ABOVE. 

AT THE SFC...RATHER WEAK RIDGING IS PRODUCING MODERATE WINDS 
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PRES PATTERN MAY EVEN WEAKEN FURTHER 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXTENSIVE AREAS OF STRONG WINDS 
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT. A BROKEN LAYER OF 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE SUBTROPICS...INDICATING 
THE STABILITY IN THE REGION.

$$
CANGIALOSI