000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130928 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON AUG 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE POSSIBLY SETTING OFF A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. NO ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SIMILAR TO ABOVE WAVE. STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THIS MORNING BUT NO ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT HAS 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12.6N107.6W ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE IS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE MID CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE LOOKING LIKE WEAK BANDS..ARE REALLY NOT SHOWING ANY CURVATURE AS THEY MOVE W 15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THERE IS AN ELONGATED AXIS OF CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH THIS WAVE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND MOSTLY WEAK IN A CURVED BAND FROM 15N125W TO 16N128W TO 14N130W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N79W 16N98W 13N108W 10N121W 11N129W 10N134W 12N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 6N79W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N87W TO 13N93W TO 14N95W TO 15N99W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 15N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN 10N AND 14N FROM 110W TO 118W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 11N124W. ISOLATED CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ON THE W MEXICAN COAST NEAR 28N112W. ...DISCUSSION... TWO MID LEVEL FEATURES TONIGHT LOOK EVEN STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS HAS DRIFTED W TO NEAR 35N103W AND EXTENDS W TO 122W. THE TROUGH ALONG 138W IS GETTING A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT TONIGHT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE DRIVING S ALONG 142W TO 37N. THIS WILL DRIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS DOWNWARD AND MAINTAIN THE TROUGH. AN OLD EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS WEAKLY DEPICTED IN THE WATER VAPOR NEAR 28N124W MOVING N 10 KT. A NEW SHORTWAVE IS ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG 110W AND IS SETTING OFF STRONG TSTMS OVER WRN MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO LOWER BAJA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS A DRY TONGUE DROPPING S ALONG 135W TO 12N BEHIND HRCN FLOSSIE WHICH HAS MOVED TO 14N148W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A DISTURBANCE IS NOTED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 12N106W WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA BUT RIDGES SE TO 20N110W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 06Z CHART. GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST BETWEEN 105W AND 132W ACCORDING TO SSMI. LATER DAY 1 BATTLE OF THE TITANS SETTING UP AS THE NEW SURGE ENERGIZES THE TROUGH AND IT BUTTS UP AGAINST THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 35N105W. EMBEDDED TROUGH ON S SIDE OF RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY WWD TO SRN BAJA WHILE A SECOND INVERTED TROUGH MOVES E IN THE EASTERLIES TO 135W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 NOT MUCH ON THE SURFACE UNDER THIS INVERTED TROUGH JUST A KINK ON THE ITCZ ALONG 132W. WEAK DISTURBANCE ON ITCZ NEAR 12N112W MOVING SLOWLY WWD. PACIFIC RIDGE DEVELOPS WEAK CENTER 1021 MB NEAR 30N130W AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SE TO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS STRONGEST S OF THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE ITCZ. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOWS IT'S MUSCLES BY LOWERING HEIGHTS W OF 130W AND N OF 25N. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE DRY OVER THE NW PORTION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWERING ABOUT 30 METERS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES TO SW PORTION OF RIDGE AND BEGINS MOVING NW ALONG 115W. INVERTED TROUGH IN EASTERLIES MOVES W TO 138W WHILE WEAKER ONES ARE LOCATED ALONG 118W AND A NEW ONE ALONG 98W. ON THE SURFACE THESE TROUGHS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TRPL WAVES IN THE EASTERLIES. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THOUGH IT HAS FAIRLY GOOD UPPER SUPPORT. A 1020 MB HIGH ANCHORS THE PACIFIC RIDGE OVER OUR REGION MAINTAINING NE TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 14N AND 24N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST PICK UP A BIT TO 20 KT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS E TO 30N129W. GAP WINDS W OF GUATEMALA COULD PICK UP TO 20 KT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR 13N94W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS COULD ALSO INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF THIS LOW BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W WHERE WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG THE ITCZ ENHANCE SLY WINDS ON THEIR S SIDE. $$ RRG