000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST ENTERING E PAC S OF PANAMA N OF 4N HAS NO 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W MOVING W 15 KT.  SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW 
BETWEEN 8N AND ITCZ ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF AXIS 
AND MOIST SWATH CREEPS N ON ERN SIDE OF WAVE.  NO ORGANIZATION 
NOTED WITH SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF AXIS ALONG ITCZ SHOWS 
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1008 MB CENTER 
AT 15N MOVING W 20 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH SYSTEM BUT ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ADVERSE FOR DEVELOPMENT. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N84W  12N90W  11N104W  15N112W  13N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 95W TO 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
SKEWED NE-SW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 32N120W TO 18N140W HAS 
STOPPED DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM DIGGING SE INTO E PAC 
MAINTAINING AIR MASS N OF ITCZ W OF 123W FAIRLY DRY.  SWATH OF 
MOIST AIR MASS E OF 112W S OF 15N SUPPLIES ITCZ WITH PLENTY OF 
WATER FOR CONVECTION ALL THE WAY INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE IN GULF OF 
MEXICO AND WRN CARIBBEAN.    

AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE NE TRADES PERSIST IN AREA N OF HURCN FLOSSIE W OF 137W 
BUT DECREASING AS FLOSSIE MOVES FURTHER W.  BROAD HIGH PRES 1034 
MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS SURFACE RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 23N118W. 
RIDGE KEEPING DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND LIMITING CONVECTION 
ALONG N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL WAVES.  OTHERWISE ITCZ ACTIVITY E 
130W ATTRACTING CROSS EQUATORIAL S-SW WINDS AND SWELLS S OF 10N.

$$
WALLY BARNES