000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112242
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W MOVING W 15 KT. SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW 
S OF ITCZ HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS AND 
MOIST SWATH CREEPS N ON ERN SIDE OF WAVE WHICH COULD INCREASE 
TSTMS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  NEVERTHELESS NO ORGANIZATION HAS 
BEEN NOTED WITH SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NEWLY DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF AXIS ALONG ITCZ 
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1009 MB CENTER 
AT 14N MOVING W 20 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH SYSTEM BUT ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ADVERSE FOR DEVELOPMENT. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N86W  12N90W  11N102W  15N114W  13N135W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 
90W TO 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
SKEWED NE-SW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 32N119W TO 15N140W HAS 
STOPPED DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM DIGGING SE INTO E PAC 
MAINTAINING AIR MASS N OF ITCZ W OF 125W FAIRLY DRY.  SWATH OF 
MOIST AIR MASS E OF 112W S OF 15N SUPPLIES ITCZ WITH PLENTY OF 
WATER FOR CONVECTION ALL THE WAY INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE IN GULF OF 
MEXICO AND WRN CARIBBEAN.    

AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE NE TRADES PERSIST IN AREA N OF HURCN FLOSSIE W OF 137W 
BUT DECREASING AS FLOSSIE MOVES FURTHER W.  BROAD HIGH PRES 1034 
MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS SURFACE RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 20N109W. 
RIDGE KEEPING DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND LIMITING CONVECTION 
ALONG N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL WAVES.  OTHERWISE ITCZ ACTIVITY E 
130W ATTRACTING CROSS EQUATORIAL S-SW WINDS AND SWELLS S OF 10N.

$$
WALLY BARNES