000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111612
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W MOVING W 15 KT. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS 
WEAKENING THIS MORNING WITHIN 90 NM ON THE EASTERN...UPSHEAR 
SIDE OF THE WAVE. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER 
LOW CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MX WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH 
TONIGHT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1009 MB CENTER 
AT 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM 
CURRENTLY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N86W 12N90W 11N102W 16N114W 12N124W 15N136W 
14N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N91W AND 
13N93W AND 14N100W AND 11N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 17N115W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...HURRICANE FLOSSIE CROSSED 140W EARLIER THIS 
MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. FRESH TRADES PERSIST IN A LARGE SWATH ON THE N 
SIDE OF FLOSSIE...BETWEEN THE STORM AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE 
HIGH PRES TO THE N. FURTHER E...ONLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EVIDENT 
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER ALONG 
119W. UPPER RIDGE TO THE N OF THIS AREA IS KEEPING GENERALLY DRY 
MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

E OF 110W...MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS WAVE ALONG 91W. ATTENDANT 
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED TO THE NW OF THE WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY AS 
THE WAVE MOVES W AND INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW...ALTHOUGH 
THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NOR ANY 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...ONLY MODERATE 
NWLY FLOW IS REPORTED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA...ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO THE 
W. HOWEVER...LOWER PRES TO THE E OVER NW MEXICO WILL ALLOW THE 
MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$

CHRISTENSEN