000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURCN FLOSSIE CENTERED AT 12.6N 139.3W AT 0900 UTC MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW FLOSSIE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE OF 12 NM. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLDEST TOP CLOUDS CONTINUE ON THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM..BUT THE W SEMICIRCLE HAS COOLED THE PAST FEW HRS INDICATING THE STORM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL OR MATURE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W MOVING W 10-15 KT. LARGE FLARE-UP OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE AXIS NEAR THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION BUT IT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE IN IR IMAGER. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1009 MB CENTER AT 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT WITH NO SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N79W 12N91W 10N100W 16N112W 14N118W 12N124W 15N136W 14N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 9N85W 9N93W 9N97W AND FROM 9N100W TO 10N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N122W TO 15N135W. ...DISCUSSION... A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING W ALONG 35N. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR TONIGHT MOVING W OF LOWER BAJA. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN NW IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 135W. THE TROUGH IS VERY DRY ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR AND ONE SHORTWAVE IS ALONG 122W LIFTING NE AND CONTAINS NO CLOUDS WHATEVER. ALL THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO S OF 20N WHERE ACTIVE CONVECTION IS BUBBLING UP ALONG THE ITCZ. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT ALL EYES ARE ON HURN FLOSSIE AS SHE MOVES WWD ALONG 13N. THE STORM HAS A WELL DEFINED EYE AND IS A COMPACT WELL DEFINED SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE THE PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO 20N110W. NE TRADES ARE BEING ENHANCED BY FLOSSIE. THEIR SPEEDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 15N AND 22N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EVIDENT S OF 8N E OF 125W ACCORDING TO SSMI. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WWD AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENING ALONG 135W. THE RIDGE WILL NOSE IT'S AXIS WSW TO 20N136W WHICH WILL KEEP ALL DISTURBANCES ALONG THE ITCZ MOVING WWD S OF 20N. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WE SAY GOODBY TO HRCN FLOSSIE AS SHE MOVES W OF OUR FORECAST WATERS. NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE BRISK W OF 130W UNTIL SHE IS FURTHER W. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 35N102W AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE WSW TO 22N132W. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH ONE OVER MEXICO AND ANOTHER ALONG 126W. THE OLD MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL HANGS ALONG 140W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE EXTREME WRN PORTION OF THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND THUS NE TRADES RELAX TO 15 TO 20 KT W OF 127W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST PICK UP SLIGHTLY WITH LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF CORTEZ. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. $$ RRG