000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURCN FLOSSIE CENTERED AT 12.7N 138.3W AT 0300 UTC MOVING W AT 
11 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND 75 WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED 
OVER NEXT 24 HRS THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 36 HRS AS SYSTEM 
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W MOVING W 10-15 KT REMAINS WEAK AS ITS 
NRN HALF STILL REMAINS OVER LAND.  IT IS DRIFTING INTO NOT-SO- 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND. ISOALTED 
MODERATE CONVECTION MAKES SYSTEM HARD TO DEFINE AND SHOWS NO 
ORGANIZATION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1009 MB CENTER 
AT 15N.  CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD 
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES W AT 10 KT DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING IN COVERAGE MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
9N-16N BETWEEN 115W-117W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 12N87W  11N100W  16N114W  12N123W  15N136W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 
100W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 109W TO 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES CENTER 1036 MB WELL NW OF 
AREA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 21N120W.  MODERATE TRADES HAVE 
WEAKENED AS HAVE NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  ONLY 
FEATURES TO PERSIST ARE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURCN FLOSSIE AND 
SOME CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND AND SWELLS MOVING N FROM S PAC INTO 
ITCZ. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST 
ENTERING FAR NW PORTION OF AREA FROM 32N138W TO 25N140W HELD IN 
PLACE BY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 27N122W...WHICH 
ALSO MAINTAINS HURCN FLOSSIE MOVING IN WLY COURSE TILL PAST 
140W.  SHARP INVERTED TROUGH FROM 32N111W TO 9N101W ENHANCES 
FAVORABLE ENVIRON ALOFT FOR TRPCL WAVE ALONG 116W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES