000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURCN FLOSSIE CENTERED AT 12.6N 137.2W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W AT 
11 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND 65 WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT WITH STRENGTHENING EXPECTED OVER 
NEXT 24 HRS THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 36-48 HRS AS SYSTEM 
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W MOVING W 10-15 KT REMAINS WEAK AND 
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS ITS NRN HALF STILL REMAINS OVER LAND.
IT IS ABOUT TO ENCOUNTER NOT-SO-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AS 
IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N-10N WITHIN 120 NM W OF AXIS 
SHOW NO ORGANIZATION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES CENTER AT 15N. 
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD 
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES W AT 10 KT DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 118W-123W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N86W 12N92W 11N101W 15N114W 12N122W 15N134W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 
97W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 108W TO 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES CENTER 1036 MB WELL NW OF 
AREA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 21N120W.  MODERATE TRADES HAVE 
WEAKENED AS HAVE NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  ONLY 
FEATURES TO PERSIST ARE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURCN FLOSSIE AND 
SOME CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND AND SWELLS MOVING N FROM S PAC INTO 
ITCZ. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST 
ENTERING FAR NW PORTION OF AREA CHECKED IN PLACE BY WELL 
ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 27N122W...WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS 
HURCN FLOSSIE MOVING IN WLY COURSE TILL PAST 140W.  SHARP 
INVERTED TROUGH FROM 32N111W TO 9N101W ENHANCES FAVORABLE 
ENVIRON ALOFT FOR TRPCL WAVE ALONG 116W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES