000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 
136.0W AT 10/1500 UTC MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT FLOSSIE 
HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS A SLOW WEAKENING 
TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER 
WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87/88W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS 
WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-14N 
BETWEEN 87W-92W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W/115W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SOME 
SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS...MAINLY WHERE THE WAVE INTERSECTS WITH THE ITCZ FROM 
9N-17N BETWEEN 111W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THIS 
VICINITY IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 114W-120W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N78W 11N92W 10N101W 14N111W 12N123W 15N132W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND 
COLOMBIA FROM 6N-8N E OF 83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180NM 
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-105W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 30 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
114W THE SFC PATTERN W OF 110W CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY 
RIDGING AROUND A QUASI-STATIONARY 1036 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 
42N150W. THIS IS PRODUCING TYPICAL LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IN 
THE VICINITY EXCEPT STRONGER N OF FLOSSIE AND NEAR THE W COAST 
OF BAJA. THIS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TYPICAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST...STABLE STRATUS 
AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 115W-135W. IN THE 
FAR NE PAC...MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW IS MAINLY S OF 
10N WHILE LIGHTER...MORE VARIABLE FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
AROUND BROAD TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY E OF 110W. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE 
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED OFF CENTRAL BAJA NEAR 26N122W. DEEP LAYER E TO ESE FLOW 
S/SW OF THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HURRICANE FLOSSIE ON A 
PERSISTENT WNW TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE FAR NE 
PAC...AND INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS N ALONG 104/105W N OF 
11N. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER E/NE FLOW IS FURTHER E OFF THE COAST 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. 


$$
WILLIS