000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 134.9W AT
10/0900Z MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 65 KT. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND NUMEROUS MODERATE 
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS 
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SOME 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. 
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOME PAST FEW HRS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N77W 11N90W 13N114W 12N123W 15N132W 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N94W TO 12N101W 
TO 11N109W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N114W 
TO 12N122W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 13N127W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST FROM 3N78W TO 7N79W 
TO 11N87W AND FROM 14N92W TO 16N99W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 
26N110W. SCATTERED STRONG NEAR THE COAST AT 12N88W TO 13N91W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT. THE 
FIRST IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN CONUS WHICH HAS BEEN 
MIGRATING BACK AND FORTH FOR A MONTH. THE SECOND IS A TROUGH 
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THAT WAXES AND WANES BASICALLY 
ALONG 130W N OF 22N. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THESE 
ENITIES. ONE IS ALONG 115W MOVING W IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW 
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE OTHER SHORTWAVE IS ALONG 132W LIFTING 
NE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT TRPL STORM FLOSSIE CONTINUES WWD 
ALONG 13N. A SMALL STORM WHICH HAS BEEN TRYING TO INTENSIFY BUT 
MAY NOT MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS 
OVER THE AREA TO 18N110W WITH NE TRADES W OF 120W TO 20 KT. BAJA 
WINDS ARE MOSTLY NWLY 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI. NO PASS 
FROM QUIKSCAT. GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AND W OF 110W 
ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. SLY SWELL TO 9 FT CONTINUES S OF 10N. 

LATER DAY 1 NO BASIC CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE 
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE ON THEIR TRACKS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 
TRPL STORM FLOSSIE WILL BE APPROACHING 137W. SHE WILL ENHANCE 
THE NE TRADES S OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND W OF 130W. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN 
LIGHT AS WILL GAP WINDS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS WILL 
INCREASE E OF 100W TO 20 KT AS PRESSURES LOWER IN THE MONSOONAL 
TROUGH ALONG 10N. 

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W 
WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SW CONUS RIDGE TO WORK IT'S WAY 
WSW TO 20N140W. ONE INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG 122W 
WHILE ANOTHER ONE APPEARS ALONG 97W..BOTH MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. 
ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN 
SLIGHTLY THUS NE TRADES ALSO STRENGTHEN W OF 120W. T.S. FLOSSIE 
MAKES HER EXIT NEAR 140W. BAJA WINDS REMAIN NWLY 10 TO 15 KT 
WHILE WINDS S OF TEHUANTEPEC INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH WEAK LOW 
PRES MOVING W IN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 90W AND 110W WITH THE LOWER 
PRESSURES ALONG 10N. 

$$
RRG