000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 133.7W AT
10/0300Z MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE EARLIER 
NOTED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE 
PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY SHEAR. OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE REMAINS
QUITE NOTICEABLE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE CENTER OVER THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM NW  THE 
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 
HOURS TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...THEN HOLD STEADY 
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEREAFTER...BEFORE IT BEGINS 
TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SRN PORTION OF A WRN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W 
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE PAC S OF PAVONES COSTA RICA TO NEAR 5N. 
THE WAVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
9N85W TO 11N86.5W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112W FROM 7N-20N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS 
WAVE HAS BEEN ONE OF THE BETTER DEFINED WAVES OF THE 
SEASON...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN LAST WEEK.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-16N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 8N95W 16N110W 13N120W 15N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXITS FROM 
11N-13N BETWEEN 105W-109W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 124W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
111W THE SFC PATTERN W OF 112W CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY 
RIDGING AROUND A STATIONARY 1036 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 
42N150W. THIS IS PRODUCING TYPICAL LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IN 
THE VICINITY. THIS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER NW FLOW NEAR 
THE COAST OF BAJA. TYPICAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST...STABLE STRATUS 
AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 115W-135W. IN THE 
FAR NE PAC...MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW IS MAINLY S OF 
10N WHILE LIGHTER...MORE VARIABLE FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
AROUND BROAD TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY E OF 105W. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW 
FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N133W TO 21N143W. A LARGE MID TO 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO NEAR 15N140W. 
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WWD A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ON A 
WNW TRACK. IN THE FAR NE PAC...AND INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
N ALONG 100W N OF 9N. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER E/NE FLOW IS FURTHER 
E OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. 

$$
AGUIRRE