000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 132.4W AT 
09/2100Z MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDING FEATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 70 NM SE 
QUADRANT. OUTFLOW PATTERN IS ALSO WELL DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO 
STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
HOLD STEADY STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES 
OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS...WHICH WOULD CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SRN PORTION OF A WRN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W 
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE PAC S OF PAVONES COSTA RICA TO NEAR 5N. 
THE WAVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 
6N-9N BETWEEN 79W-86W BUT THIS SEEMS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH NORMAL 
ITCZ ACTIVITY. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 111W S OF BAJA FROM 6N-23N...MOVING W 
NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ONE OF THE BETTER DEFINED WAVES 
OF THE SEASON...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN LAST 
WEEK. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE SURROUNDING 
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...FAINT CYCLONIC TURNING 
IS EVIDENT FROM 16N-19N...HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN 
LIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N108W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 12N100W 17N110W 11N117W 15N128W
9.5N134W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED IS WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-108W...AND 90 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 101W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-122W...WITHIN 45 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W-88W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 123W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
111W THE SFC PATTERN W OF 112W CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY 
RIDGING AROUND A STATIONARY 1036 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 
42N150W. THIS IS PRODUCING TYPICAL LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IN 
THE VICINITY. THIS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER NW FLOW NEAR 
THE COAST OF BAJA. TYPICAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST...STABLE STRATUS 
AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 115W-135W. IN THE 
FAR NE PAC...MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW IS MAINLY S OF 
10N WHILE LIGHTER...MORE VARIABLE FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
AROUND BROAD TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY E OF 105W. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW 
FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N134W TO 20N140W. A LARGE MID TO 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO NEAR 15N140W. 
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WWD A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ON A 
WNW TRACK. IN THE FAR NE PAC...AND INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
N ALONG 100W N OF 9N. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER E/NE FLOW IS FURTHER 
E OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. 

$$
AGUIRRE