000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 130.9W AT 
09/1500Z MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CYCLONE IS 
MAINTAINING WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE AND A SEPARATE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF 
THE PRESUMED CENTER. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE STORM ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY 
COOLER WATERS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND 72 
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE SRN PORTION OF A WRN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W 
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE PAC S OF PAVONES COSTA RICA TO NEAR 5N. 
THE WAVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 
6N-9N BETWEEN 79W-86W BUT THIS SEEMS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH NORMAL 
ITCZ ACTIVITY. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 111W S OF BAJA FROM 6N-22N...MOVING W 
NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ONE OF THE BETTER DEFINED WAVES 
OF THE SEASON...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN LAST 
WEEK. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE SURROUNDING 
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...SOME CYCLONIC TURNING 
WAS EVIDENT IN AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500 UTC THOUGH WINDS WERE 
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KT. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM 1300 UTC 
WENT DIRECTLY THROUGH THIS VICINITY SHOWING SEAS ARE ONLY IN THE 
4 TO 6 FT RANGE. DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED...WITH A FEW 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE NOTED FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 
106W-112W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 9N95W 13N108W 14N113W 12N120W 
15N127W 12N133W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM N 
AND 30NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-93W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE BETWEEN 96W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 
7N-12N BETWEEN 114W-122W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS E OF FLOSSIE 
WITHIN 30NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-127W. ANOTHER 
CLUSTER IS W OF FLOSSIE WITHIN 30NM OF 11N138W. 

...DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF T.S. FLOSSIE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W THE SFC 
PATTERN W OF 112W IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AROUND A STATIONARY 
1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 43N150W. THIS IS PRODUCING TYPICAL 
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IN THE VICINITY. THIS IS GENERALLY 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EXCEPT FOR 
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NW FLOW NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA. TYPICAL BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST...STABLE STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 
18N BETWEEN 115W-135W. IN THE FAR NE PAC...MODERATE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW IS MAINLY S OF 10N WHILE LIGHTER...MORE 
VARIABLE FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AROUND BROAD TROUGHING IN THE 
VICINITY E OF 105W. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW 
FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N135W TO 20N143W. A LARGE MID TO 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO NEAR 15N140W. 
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WWD A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH T.S. FLOSSIE ON A WNW TRACK. 
IN THE FAR NE PAC...AND INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS N ALONG 
99W N OF 8N. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER E/NE FLOW IS FURTHER E OFF THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. 

$$
WILLIS