000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N125W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
125W S OF 19N.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW 10 KT.  A LOW CENTER IS 
E OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION.  A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 
129W.    

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W EXTENDING FROM 23N E OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 4N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  IT IS MOVING W 15 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W FROM 15N TO 4N MOVING W 12 KT.  
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 8N90W 10N100W 14N107W 10N117W 
14N125W 10N135W 10N140W.  IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N 
TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W.  

...DISCUSSION...
AT THE SURFACE...A DOMINATE 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 45N152W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE 
HIGH TO NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AT 27N120W.  MOSTLY 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA.  TRADEWINDS FROM 
20N TO 30N W OF 120W ARE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT.  FURTHER E...THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
FROM 20N TO 30N E OF 120W WITH 20 KT NWLY WINDS.  FURTHER SOUTH 
OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN THE EQUATOR TO 20N THE 
TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURES MOVING W.  SEE 
ABOVE.    

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 25N E OF 135W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N139W.  FURTHER E...A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER W MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 
30N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE COAST OF SW MEXICO NEAR 25N106W.  FURTHER SE A SMALL UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W.  THE TROPICAL EASTERN 
PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 130W HAS THE 
USUAL SELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

$$
FORMOSA