000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072031
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N123W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
123W S OF 20N.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW 10 KT.  A LOW CENTER IS 
E OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION.  A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W...AND FROM 
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W.    

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 103W EXTENDING FROM 20N OVER S 
MEXICO TO 4N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  IT IS MOVING W 15 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 110W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112W FROM 15N TO 4N MOVING W 12 KT.  
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 113W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 9N84W 14N100W 12N110W 11N116W 
14N123W 11N130W 12N140W.  IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 5N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.  

...DISCUSSION...
A DOMINATE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
NEAR 45N154W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AT 27N120W.  MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA.  REMNANTS OF A PRIOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
AT 23N134W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 
24N BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.  TRADEWINDS FROM 20N TO 30N W OF 
120W ARE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT.  FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE TROPICAL 
EASTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN THE EQUATOR TO 20N THE TROPICAL WAVES 
ARE THE DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURES MOVING W.  SEE ABOVE.    

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 25N E OF 135W.  FURTHER E...A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER W MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 
30N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE COAST OF SW MEXICO NEAR 20N104W WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEARBY FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 
102W AND 107W.  FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 130W...THE USUAL SELY UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW PREVAIL.

$$
FORMOSA