000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14.5N122W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 122W S OF 20N.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW 10 KT.  THE LOW 
CENTER IS N OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION.  A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 121W AND 125W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 127W AND 
129W.    

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W EXTENDING FROM 22N OVER S 
MEXICO TO 4N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  IT IS MOVING W 15 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 
8N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.  A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST 
OF MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W IS MOST LIKELY 
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W FROM 18N TO 4N MOVING W 12 KT.  
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W 
AND 112W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 11N90W 12N100W 12N109W 10N114W 
13N121W 11N130W 11N140W.  IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 
78W AND 81W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST 
OF COSTA RICA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.  

...DISCUSSION...
A DOMINATE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
NEAR 45N154W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AT 27N120W.  MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA.  REMNANTS OF A PRIOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
AT 23N134W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 
24N BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.  TRADEWINDS FROM 20N TO 30N W OF 
120W ARE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT.  FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE TROPICAL 
EASTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN THE EQUATOR TO 20N THE TROPICAL WAVES 
ARE THE DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURES MOVING W.  SEE ABOVE.    

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 25N E OF 135W.  FURTHER E...A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER W MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 
30N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE COAST OF SW MEXICO NEAR 20N104W WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEARBY FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 
102W AND 107W.  FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 130W...THE USUAL SELY UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW PREVAIL.

$$
FORMOSA