000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SFC LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 14N121W EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
120W...POSSIBLY COULD DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 
24-36 HRS...MOVING W 10 MPH.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL MEXICO TO 6N 
MOVE W 15 KT.  CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM OF AXIS ALONG ITCZ.  CONDITIONS ALOFT NOT FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG NE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.     

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 7N TO 16N MOVING W 15 KT.  
ISOLATED CONVECTION RESTRICTED TO ITCZ FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 
102W AND 111W.  CONDITIONS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 14N96W 11N103W 15N118W 11N122W 12N128W  
10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 
102W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 
120W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 32N135W TO 
21N140W INTRODUCES SWATH OF DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 14N W OF 
130W.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO 
COVERS E EPAC E OF 120W.  LOW PRES WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W 
APPROACHING AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT WHERE RIDGE FLOW 
ACCELERATES INTO JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH.  OTHERWISE STRONG FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE 
WHILE MOIST REMAINS TOO STRONG TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. 

AT THE SURFACE...1035 MB HIGH PRES WELL NW OF AREA EXTENDS RIDGE 
SE TO 15N111W...EXCEPT REMNANTS OF PRIOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 
22N133W...MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION COVERS AREA.  
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES 1004 MB OVER 
WRN MEXICO.  AS A RESULT...BURST OF WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE 
ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN 24 HOURS N OF 26N...ONLY
TO DIMINISH WITHIN 48 HRS. 

ACTIVITY ALONG ITCZ ATTRACTS CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS AND SWELLS 
WHICH EXPAND COVERAGE TO W OF 80W S OF 10N IN 48 HRS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES