000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062102
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N119W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
119W S OF 18N.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW 10 KT.  THE LOW CENTER 
IS EXPOSED AND IS SEEN N OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION.  A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.  PRESENTLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 120W...AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W.    

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W EXTENDING FROM THE SRN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE ACROSS S MEXICO TO 4N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  IT IS 
MOVING W 15 KT.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 97W.     

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 17N TO 6N MOVING W 12 KT.  
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 132W FROM 23N TO 6N MOVING W 12 KT.  THIS 
WAVE IS BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N131W MASKING 
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN.  NO CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  
CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE ALONG 
THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 133W AND 137W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 10N85W 12N95W 11N110W 14N120W 
13N131W 9N140W.  IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE 
SECTIONS ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N 
TO 9N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 7N TO 10 N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W.  

...DISCUSSION...
A DOMINATE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
NEAR 45N154W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AT 27N120W.  MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA.  TRADEWINDS FROM 20N 
TO 30N W OF 120W ARE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT.  FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE 
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN THE EQUATOR TO 20N THE TROPICAL 
WAVES ARE THE DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURES MOVING W.  SEE ABOVE.    

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS N OF N OF 25N E OF 125W.  FURTHER SE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N111W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW 
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N131W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THIS AREA.  FURTHER SE AGAIN...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 
20N94W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W.  
FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
10N BETWEEN 80W AND 130W...THE USUAL SELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
PREVAILS.

$$
FORMOSA