000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061636
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N117W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
117W S OF 17N.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW 10 KT AND  CONTINUES TO 
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN.  THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH LESS SHEAR 
THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS.  A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 
48 HOURS.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W.    

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W EXTENDING FROM THE SRN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE ACROSS S MEXICO TO 4N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  IT IS 
MOVING W 15 KT.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W...FROM 
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W 
AND 104W.     

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W FROM 16N TO 6N MOVING W 12 KT.  
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 130W FROM 23N TO 6N MOVING W 12 KT.  THIS 
WAVE IS BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N130W MASKING 
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN.  NO CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  
CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE ALONG 
THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 137W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N75W 9N84W 11N100W 12N110W 13N117W 
10N130W 8N140W.  IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE 
SECTIONS ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 
78W AND 85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 10 N 
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.  

...DISCUSSION...
A DOMINATE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
NEAR 45N155W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AT 27N120W.  MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA.  TRADEWINDS FROM 20N 
TO 30N W OF 120W ARE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT.  FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE 
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN THE EQUATOR TO 20N THE TROPICAL 
WAVES ARE THE DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURES MOVING W.  SEE ABOVE.    

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS N OF N OF 25N E OF 125W.  FURTHER SE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N111W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW 
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N130W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THIS AREA.  FURTHER SE AGAIN...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 
20N94W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W.  
FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
10N BETWEEN 80W AND 130W...THE USUAL SELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
PREVAILS.

$$
FORMOSA