000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 12N116W MOVING WNW 12 KT. SYSTEM HAD 
CONSISTED OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION UP UNTIL AN HOUR AGO WHEN A BURST OF VERY STRONG 
CONVECTION OBSCURED THE CENTER. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE -85C 
IN THIS BURST. A LARGER AREA OF SCATTRED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150-180 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ. SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SHOULD THE SHEAR ABATE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 4N AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE 
OVERALL CLOUD ENVELOPE IS IMPRESSIVE IN SIZE AND STRUCTURE OWING 
TO THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING IN THE CLOUD FIELD WAS 
CENTERED NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N93W. THE BULK 
OF THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE 
OCCURRING OVER THE S COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WWD TO 98W AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BEING 
LIFTED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W MOVING W 12 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THROUGH THERE IS SOME MID 
LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 9N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 8N TO 22N WITH A WEAKENING 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 19N...ALL MOVING W 12 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND WAVE. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...9N84W 10N96W 14N111W 12N119W 
15N125W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120-180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXERTING MORE INFLUENCE ON THE PATTERN 
IN THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 32N127W 27N135W INTO A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N139W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 

A PAIR OF SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE LOCATED NEAR 
17N128W AND 26N125W AND ARE MOVING NWWD 10-15 KT AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF A ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN SEA 
OF CORTEZ WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO AREA ALONG 30N114W 
22N122W. UPPER MOISTURE IS INDICATED N OF 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 
120W.
 
FURTHER E...YET ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 7N E OF 105W.  ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COAST FROM 4N78W TO 14N95W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS E OF 100W.

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY S OF 6N W OF 
86W. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N WITH 
SUBNORMAL TRADES OVER THE W PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.

$$
COBB