000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 11N114W MOVING W 12 KT. SYSTEM CONTINUES 
TO EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A MUCH LARGER AREA
OF SCATTRED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM IN 
THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ. SYSTEM 
REMAINS IN SN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. SHOULD THE SHEAR 
ABATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE SYSTEM HAS A BETTER POTENTIAL 
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W N OF 5N AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE 
OVERALL CLOUD ENVELOPE IS IMPRESSIVE IN SIZE AND STRUCTURE OWING 
TO THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER BELIZE...THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ADDITIONAL 
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA 
RICA AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BEING LIFTED ALONG THE 
SIERRA MADRE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W MOVING W 12 KT. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED 
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W FROM 8N TO 22N WITH A WEAKENING 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 19N...ALL MOVING W 12 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND WAVE. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...9N84W 10N102W 13N125W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE AXIS 
E OF 105W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXERTING MORE INFLUENCE ON THE PATTERN 
IN THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 32N129W 27N135W INTO A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N139W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 

A PAIR OF SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE LOCATED NEAR 
16N127W AND 25N124W AND ARE MOVING NWWD 10-15 KT AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF A ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN SEA 
OF CORTEZ WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO AREA ALONG 32N112W 
24N123W.  UPPER MOISTURE IS INDICATED N OF 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 
120W.
 
FURTHER E...YET ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 7N E OF 105W.  ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM 
4N78W TO 14N95W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS E OF LINE 
1N80W 13N97W.

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY S OF 6N W OF 
86W. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N WITH 
SUBNORMAL TRADES OVER THE W PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC.

$$
COBB