000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 11N114W MOVING W 12 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING 
CONTINUES WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED NEAR 11.5N115W. THIS SYSTEM 
HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 5N AND IS MOVING W 12 KT. AN 
IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER 
LAND AT 17N89W. OTHER CLUSTERS ARE AT 10.5N89W AND 13.5N94W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W MOVING W 12 KT. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED 
ALONG THE ITCZ AT 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 7N TO 21N WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 
18N125W...ALL MOVING W 12 KT. THIS WAVE HAS A SMALL AREA OF 
CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 18N125.5W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...7N77W 10N105W 10N125W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
LINE 3.4N79W AND 8.5N85.6W 10.6N89.2W AND 13.7N93.3W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF 8.7N101.6W AND 
WITHIN 45 NM OF 11.7N114.9W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION ALONG 32N128W 
24N135W INTO A CYCLONE 17.5N138W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY NW OF 
LINE 32N120W 10N135W.

ANOTHER SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 15N125W WITH UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS NE QUADRANT ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE 
SURFACE LOW NEAR 18N125W. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD 
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW INTO AREA ALONG 32N112W 24N123W. UPPER 
MOISTURE IS INDICATED N OF 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 7N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 100W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM 4N78W TO 
14N95W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS E OF LINE 1N80W 13N97W.

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY S OF 6N W OF 
86W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK RIDING COVER THE AREA N OF 20N.

$$
NELSON