000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050925 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN AUG 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 11N113W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST FEW HRS INDICATING SOME WEAKENING TAKING PLACE. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE OK WITH NO STRONG SHEAR NOTED. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP MOISTURE AND COULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HR. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 5N AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAS ABOUT AS STRONG AS A WAVE GETS BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A DEPRESSION. THE ONLY PROBLEM WAS IT MOVED OVER LAND..THUS CONVECTION HAS BECOME SCATTERED. STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ON THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA WITH ANOTHER BATCH OVER NRN GUATEMALA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF THIS WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. CONVECTION REMAINS WEAKER THAN 24 HR AGO. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W FROM 7N TO 21N WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 18N124W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 19N125W. THERE IS A WEAK LOW ON THE SE CORNER OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 11N99W 11N114W 17N124W 8N132W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 5N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR 7N83W AND FROM 8N96W TO 10N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 10N124W AND 8N136W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N90W. OTHER MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST AT 10N86W 11N86W AND 16N95W. ...DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SW CONUS TONIGHT SLIDING EWD BUT STILL RIDGES W TO 27N120W. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL TROUGH UNDERNEATH RIDGE ALONG 112W MOVING SLOWLY WWD. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER EXTREME NW CORNER OF AREA STATIONARY. IN BETWEEN A WEAKNESS IN THE PRES FIELD BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. A UPPER TROUGH IN THIS AREA N OF 33N HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN CAPTURING EMBEDDED TROUGHS AS THEY EMERGE FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS. ONE IS LIFTING NE OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TRPL DISTURBANCES ALONG 114W AND 123W..BOTH NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT AS FAR AS INTENSIFYING. THE FIRST IS ONE THE ITCZ WHILE THE SECOND IS ALONG 18N HEADING OVER COOLER WATERS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING NE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES WNW IT IS PRESSING AGAINST THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND PRODUCING NE WINDS TO 20 KT. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND THROUGH GAP AREAS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST BETWEEN 105W AND 115W AND W OF 130W ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVING ESE RELEASING GRIP ON THE EMBEDDED TROUGH THAT NOW MOVES TO 115W. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N ALONG 125W IS POISED TO CAPTURE THE EMBEDDED TROUGH AS IT MOVES NW. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE DISTURBANCE ALONG 123W MOVES TO NEAR 18N127W BUT SHOWS LITTLE SIGNS OF DEVELOPING. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER S MAY HAVE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT BUT THE GFS MODEL DOESN'T DO MUCH WITH IT. OTHER AREAS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WIND WISE. FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE EMBEDDED TROUGH MOVING NNE OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH MOVES TO 90W. THE RIDGE STILL EXTENDS WSW TO 20N130W AND MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENING AS DOES THE TWO DISTURBANCES. NE TRADES DECREASE SOME ALTHOUGH WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL N OF 20N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST INCREASE SLIGHTLY DAY 2 TO 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS S OF 8N MOSTLY SE TO S TO 20 KT WITH INCREASING SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. $$ RRG