000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042126 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT AUG 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 10N109W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW PRES AREA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER THAT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT WITH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AS IT IS SITUATED WELL TO THE S OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PROVIDE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE AREA ALONG 83W/84W N OF 4N AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE REMAINS VERY ACTIVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER AND HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 79W AND EXTENDING OVER HONDURAS... NICARAGUA AND AS FAR W AS BELIZE AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ NEAR THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W FROM 7N TO 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N121W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW ARE KEEPING THE CONVECTION SHEARED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY RELAX OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS THEREBY LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...9N84W 10N94W 13N108W 10N114W 14N119W 7N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 6.5N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ E OF 87W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND ALSO GULF OF PANAMA. ...DISCUSSION... TWO MID LEVEL RIDGES DOMINATE VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SW CONUS COVERING N-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE EPAC E OF 130W AND THE OTHER JUST W OF 140W WHICH RIDGES SE INTO OUR REGION TO 25N134W. IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES THERE IS A SHEARED UPPER TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N128W AND EXTENDS SWD TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N134W. ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAINLY AT THE MID LEVELS IS LOCATED NEAR 19N120W AND IS MOVING NWWD 15 KT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N121W. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. MID LEVEL EASTERLIES REMAIN S OF 20N SHEARING A TRPCL DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR 16N120W. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVELS CLOUD DEBRIS WWD OVER THE EPAC MAINLY E OF 130W. ON THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF 25N W OF 130W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BETWEEN 100W AND 110W S OF A CONVECTIVE AREA ON THE ITCZ. $$ COBB