000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041510 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES 1009 MB 10N108W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. AREA OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THIS MORNING. FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PARTICULARLY OVER THE 
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW 
PRES IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N120W MOVING 
W 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS 
CONTINUED NEAR 17N121W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS OVER THE 
AREA ARE KEEPING THE CONVECTION SHEARED FROM THE LOW LEVEL 
CENTER.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...7N82W 10N100W 16N117W 10N130W 
14N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 117W. 

ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST AT 12N90W 
AND 21N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO MID LEVEL RIDGES DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. ONE REMAINS OVER 
THE SW CONUS COVERING N-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE EPAC W OF 130W 
AND THE OTHER JUST NW OF 140W WHICH RIDGES SE INTO OUR REGION TO 
25N132W. IN BETWEEN THE TWO THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT ENTERS 
THE REGION NEAR 30N130W. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE NW CORNER 
OF THE REGION. MID LEVEL EASTERLIES REMAIN S OF 20N SHEARING 
A TRPCL DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR 16N120W. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO 
ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVELS CLOUD DEBRIS WWD OVER THE EPAC 
MAINLY E OF 130W.   

ON THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS N OF 14N W OF 130W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 
KT ARE BETWEEN 100W AND 110W S OF A CONVECTIVE AREA ON THE ITCZ. 

$$
GR